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Getting Real has moved to ChicagoNow but occasionally you will be able to find additional posts here.

Articles for March, 2010

Getting Real Is Moving To Chicago Now

Wednesday, March 10th, 2010 by Gary Lucido

Effective tonight we are moving the Getting Real blog (you may not have known that was it’s name) to Chicago Now. Chicago Now is a Chicago focused (duh!) online community, owned by the Chicago Tribune and comprised of over 200 blogs which are hand picked by the Tribune folks.

So why are we doing this? Because Chicago Now has at least 500,000 unique visitors per month and we want to get our word out to as many people as possible.

Sari will continue to occasionally post here but Gary will be doing all his posts at the Chicago Now site. Old posts will be archived here.

The new URL for the blog is http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-real-estate-getting-real/ or you can also just type in chicagonow.com/gettingreal

I’m going to try to move the RSS feed over but in case I’m not successful you can subscribe to the new feed at http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-real-estate-getting-real/atom.xml

Real Estate’s Independent Contractor Model Broken

Monday, March 8th, 2010 by Gary Lucido

I would bet that most consumers of real estate services don’t realize that realtors in traditional brokerages are not really employees of their brokerages, but rather independent contractors. Basically it’s a cottage industry, with all its inherent flaws. I can only speculate as to why it evolved that way and I certainly don’t understand why this model persists today. Perhaps it made sense before the Internet. Return with us now to those thrilling days of yesteryear. All listing information is kept on non-searchable listing sheets of paper. Everything that can be known about a neighborhood or a property is in some agent’s head. And the only way to find an agent is through traditional media or personal relationships. In such a world the agent has all the power and the broker merely serves an administrative function.

Whatever the rationale for the model, it no longer works and I don’t think it ever worked that well. Let me count the many ways.

Fundamentally, this model is based upon the concept, still largely true today, that the agent brings in all the business. Consequently, the brokerage views the agent as a third party distribution channel. And since the marginal cost of hiring an agent is near zero the brokerages “hire” as many of these distributors as possible. If an agent only closes one deal this year for Aunt Margaret that’s one more deal that the brokerage gets. So the brokerage is going to hire agents without regard to their abilities. The more the merrier.

However, this situation is exacerbated by the fact that with independent contractors there are no performance standards – not even supervision – except with regard to statutory paperwork requirements. Of course, the broker is available to help the real estate agent – but only if requested. The agents come and go as they please. And the only time a real estate agent gets their contract terminated is when it becomes apparent that the agent is a huge embarrassment for the brokerage or when they represent a significant legal risk for the brokerage.

So you wonder why the real estate industry has so many bad agents? This is why. The irony in all of this is that the traditional brokerages spend a ton of money advertising their “brand” but there is no brand except in the mythical world of advertising. How can you have a brand when you will hire anyone who can fog a mirror? The agent that is working for brand A today worked for brand B yesterday. The only reason they moved is because they didn’t like their managing broker or they got a better commission split at the new place. Or maybe they also fell for the pictures in those very expensive newspaper ads of elegantly dressed buyers and sellers that represent huge commissions.

With the advent of the Internet this traditional model has become even more flawed because more and more people today are choosing agents and brokerages based upon business models and value propositions as opposed to relationships. It’s getting harder and harder for real estate agents to generate business using traditional techniques such as direct mail, wine and cheese parties, and pumpkin dropoffs. And effectively leveraging the Internet requires skills way beyond the capabilities of the vast majority of real estate agents. As I pointed out in a recent post, the vast majority of  real estate agents are starving in this market. Consequently, real estate agents are losing their power over the brokerages and are in need of more support that their brokerages can’t provide.

In summary,  the independent contractor model just isn’t working for the consumer or most realtors. Yet, are realtors willing to change? For decades real estate has been a lifestyle business, where people escape from the confines of the corporate world and pursue the American dream of working for yourself and setting your own hours (possibly another reason the independent contractor model persists). Are realtors the type of people who can make the switch to employee status in exchange for business success?

Continuing Signs Of Improvement In Chicago Real Estate Market

Thursday, March 4th, 2010 by Gary Lucido

Market conditions for 2 and 3 bedroom condos in the city of Chicago continue to show improvement through February. Once again inventory (months of supply) of these condos is lower on a year over year basis. This continues a trend that began in June, 2009, with February at about half of 2009′s level.

Chicago Condo Inventory

In addition, market times for condos that are on the market also continued their decline.

Chicago Condo Market Times

While inventories of unsold condos did show some decline in Chicago, the main driver of this improvement is an almost doubling of February sales volume from the previous year.

A bit of a caveat is in order here, as I recently discovered some issues with the underlying data. The calculations above differ from the standard industry practice of focusing on closed deals – for sales volume and for market times. In an effort to make the data more current and meaningful we use contracts written for sales volume and we report the market times for condos that are for sale instead of condos that sold. However, there is a problem with this approach in that as many as 15% of contracts written never materialize in a sale. When a contract falls through the property is reactivated and no longer counted as a sold condo in the data above. Consequently, as time progresses, the sales volume for February will decline and the inventory level will rise retroactively. Similarly, deals that fall through are returned to the inventory of unsold condos, having racked up additional market time without a sale. Consequently, the February market times will increase as these older properties are returned to the pool of unsold condos. In other words, both inventory levels and market times are initially understated but correct over the course of a couple of months as the data ages.

As always, you can find inventory levels and market times for some key Chicago neighborhoods and suburbs on our site:

       
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