Chicago Area Real Estate Market Trends
This page is a collection of real estate statistics and trends for the Chicago area. Data on this page is updated as it becomes available.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Chicago)
This index is possibly the best measure of home prices over time. Rather than using the median sales prices often reported in the media, this index actually follows the changes in prices of individual homes over time. Therefore, unlike the median sales prices, it is not affected by changes in the mix of housing sold over time - e.g. if a higher percentage of expensive homes are sold this would raise median prices but should not be regarded as an increase in prices.
Home price data for Chicago is reported monthly and goes back to January, 1987. The graph below is current through August, 2008.
Prices are now down to the level last seen in January 2005 and have fallen a total of 11% from the peak in September 2006. However, the index has been little changed in the last 6 months.
Illinois Association of Realtors Monthly Sales Data (Chicago PMSA)
The IAR tracks monthly units sold for the Chicago Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area (PMSA), which includes a broad area of Chicago and its suburbs. The graph below represents single family homes plus condominiums sold from January, 2006 through September, 2008.
The graph shows that for the first time the gap in home sales in Chicago from last year has improved. Priro to September sales were consistently tracking about 25 - 30% below last year without any indication of improvement. However, in September sales were only down 6.2% from last year. However, September 2007 was a really bad month and therefore helps the comparison.
Chicago Association of Realtors Quarterly Unit Sales for Chicago
CAR tracks monthly residential units sold for the city of Chicago. The graph below shows single family homes plus condominiums sold from the first quarter of 1992 through the third quarter of 2008. In order to smooth out the seasonal patterns the graph also displays a rolling 4 quarter moving average of the data.
The sales rate is now down to where it was in the 1997 - 1998 time period.
It’s also interesting to note that Chicago home sales peaked in the last half of 2005 but prices didn’t peak until October, 2006. Could it be that unit sales are a leading indicator of home prices?
Chicago Area Employment
A great indicator of long term demand for housing in any region is the employment statistics. If people are working they need a place to live. Therefore, we track the employment numbers reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the broad Chicago metropolitan area, which includes such towns as Naperville and Joliet. These numbers have been showing growth until June 2008 when employment dropped by 11,800 from the previous year - a significant but not a huge number. It represents about a 0.3% employment drop. However, by September employment had dropped by close to 72,000 vs. the previous year. The unemployment rate for the Chicago area is not that high at 6.3%, though it is up from a low of 4.6% in November 2007.
Interestingly, even though employment peaked in 2000, home sales continued to rise through 2005. Maybe that was a sign that things had gotten out of control.
The forecasted unemployment rate for Chicago is pretty scary. According to an October 20, 2008 Crain’s story, Sophia Koropeckyj, an economist with Moody’s Economy.com, predicts that by the end of 2009 unemployment will reach a short-term peak of 8.4%.
Chicago Community Real Estate Market Statistics
For each of the following Chicago communities we provide trend data for housing inventory and the number of days on the market for sold homes as an indicator of the health of the real estate market.
