March 10th, 2010 by Gary Lucido
Effective tonight we are moving the Getting Real blog (you may not have known that was it’s name) to Chicago Now. Chicago Now is a Chicago focused (duh!) online community, owned by the Chicago Tribune and comprised of over 200 blogs which are hand picked by the Tribune folks.
So why are we doing this? Because Chicago Now has at least 500,000 unique visitors per month and we want to get our word out to as many people as possible.
Sari will continue to occasionally post here but Gary will be doing all his posts at the Chicago Now site. Old posts will be archived here.
The new URL for the blog is http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-real-estate-getting-real/ or you can also just type in chicagonow.com/gettingreal
I’m going to try to move the RSS feed over but in case I’m not successful you can subscribe to the new feed at http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-real-estate-getting-real/atom.xml
Tags: Chicago real estate
Posted in News | 1 Comment »
March 8th, 2010 by Gary Lucido
I would bet that most consumers of real estate services don’t realize that realtors in traditional brokerages are not really employees of their brokerages, but rather independent contractors. Basically it’s a cottage industry, with all its inherent flaws. I can only speculate as to why it evolved that way and I certainly don’t understand why this model persists today. Perhaps it made sense before the Internet. Return with us now to those thrilling days of yesteryear. All listing information is kept on non-searchable listing sheets of paper. Everything that can be known about a neighborhood or a property is in some agent’s head. And the only way to find an agent is through traditional media or personal relationships. In such a world the agent has all the power and the broker merely serves an administrative function.
Whatever the rationale for the model, it no longer works and I don’t think it ever worked that well. Let me count the many ways.
Fundamentally, this model is based upon the concept, still largely true today, that the agent brings in all the business. Consequently, the brokerage views the agent as a third party distribution channel. And since the marginal cost of hiring an agent is near zero the brokerages “hire” as many of these distributors as possible. If an agent only closes one deal this year for Aunt Margaret that’s one more deal that the brokerage gets. So the brokerage is going to hire agents without regard to their abilities. The more the merrier.
However, this situation is exacerbated by the fact that with independent contractors there are no performance standards – not even supervision – except with regard to statutory paperwork requirements. Of course, the broker is available to help the real estate agent – but only if requested. The agents come and go as they please. And the only time a real estate agent gets their contract terminated is when it becomes apparent that the agent is a huge embarrassment for the brokerage or when they represent a significant legal risk for the brokerage.
So you wonder why the real estate industry has so many bad agents? This is why. The irony in all of this is that the traditional brokerages spend a ton of money advertising their “brand” but there is no brand except in the mythical world of advertising. How can you have a brand when you will hire anyone who can fog a mirror? The agent that is working for brand A today worked for brand B yesterday. The only reason they moved is because they didn’t like their managing broker or they got a better commission split at the new place. Or maybe they also fell for the pictures in those very expensive newspaper ads of elegantly dressed buyers and sellers that represent huge commissions.
With the advent of the Internet this traditional model has become even more flawed because more and more people today are choosing agents and brokerages based upon business models and value propositions as opposed to relationships. It’s getting harder and harder for real estate agents to generate business using traditional techniques such as direct mail, wine and cheese parties, and pumpkin dropoffs. And effectively leveraging the Internet requires skills way beyond the capabilities of the vast majority of real estate agents. As I pointed out in a recent post, the vast majority of real estate agents are starving in this market. Consequently, real estate agents are losing their power over the brokerages and are in need of more support that their brokerages can’t provide.
In summary, the independent contractor model just isn’t working for the consumer or most realtors. Yet, are realtors willing to change? For decades real estate has been a lifestyle business, where people escape from the confines of the corporate world and pursue the American dream of working for yourself and setting your own hours (possibly another reason the independent contractor model persists). Are realtors the type of people who can make the switch to employee status in exchange for business success?
Tags: Agents, brokerages, brokers, independent contractors, realtors
Posted in Agents, Industry Issues | 6 Comments »
March 4th, 2010 by Gary Lucido
Market conditions for 2 and 3 bedroom condos in the city of Chicago continue to show improvement through February. Once again inventory (months of supply) of these condos is lower on a year over year basis. This continues a trend that began in June, 2009, with February at about half of 2009′s level.

In addition, market times for condos that are on the market also continued their decline.

While inventories of unsold condos did show some decline in Chicago, the main driver of this improvement is an almost doubling of February sales volume from the previous year.
A bit of a caveat is in order here, as I recently discovered some issues with the underlying data. The calculations above differ from the standard industry practice of focusing on closed deals – for sales volume and for market times. In an effort to make the data more current and meaningful we use contracts written for sales volume and we report the market times for condos that are for sale instead of condos that sold. However, there is a problem with this approach in that as many as 15% of contracts written never materialize in a sale. When a contract falls through the property is reactivated and no longer counted as a sold condo in the data above. Consequently, as time progresses, the sales volume for February will decline and the inventory level will rise retroactively. Similarly, deals that fall through are returned to the inventory of unsold condos, having racked up additional market time without a sale. Consequently, the February market times will increase as these older properties are returned to the pool of unsold condos. In other words, both inventory levels and market times are initially understated but correct over the course of a couple of months as the data ages.
As always, you can find inventory levels and market times for some key Chicago neighborhoods and suburbs on our site:
Tags: Chicago condos, Chicago Home Inventory, Chicago real estate market
Posted in Market Insights, News | 2 Comments »
February 27th, 2010 by Gary Lucido
As I pointed out in a recent post, 1,000 realtors left the real estate business in Chicago last year. I can attest to how poorly most real estate agents are doing in this market because I periodically look up the sales statistics for agents that I know and most of the time their numbers are pretty low. So, finally, just the other day I decided to try to quantify realtor performance in the Chicago market. I pulled data on the last 12 month’s closings by realtor in the entire area covered by our MLS system, which is a huge area covering all the surrounding suburbs. I then ranked the real estate agents by the dollar value of their closings.
The bottom line is that of the almost 25,000 real estate agents with recorded residential sales in the last 12 months only 3,189 agents exceeded $3 MM in sales. If we make the simplifying assumption that those agents earned 50% (their split) of a 3% commission on average then close to 22,000 agents earned less than $45,000 last year – and that is before expenses. At the national level median expenses for realtors were $5,810 in 2008. When you factor in that this is not a cheap area to live in you can see that these agents are struggling. Furthermore, as you might expect, a minority of the agents closed most of the deals.
Now this analysis comes with a whole bunch of caveats:
- I emphasized above that this focuses on agents that had recorded sales. If an agent never closed a deal in the last 12 months then they are excluded from this analysis because I have no way to know who they are. But I suspect there are quite a few who did nothing in the last 12 months.
- Assuming that these agents earned 50% of 3% on average is a very big assumption. Many agents earn quite a bit more than 50% but on the other hand the commissions might be a bit less than 3% – e.g. typical cooperating commissions are 2.5% but could be as low as 2%.
- Many of the agents that are included in this analysis might actually make most of their income from commercial real estate and maybe they just did one or two residential deals in the last year.
- Many of the included agents might be part timers
- There may be quite a few agents that are excluded because they have no recorded sales in this time period but they might actually be quite profitably employed as members of a celebrity realtor‘s team, where the celebrity realtor takes all the credit for their business (this is a common practice).
- There may be a few agents that are included above who are members of a celebrity realtor’s team but one or two transactions appear under their name for one reason or another.
- As you start to get into the really high numbers – even as low as $16 MM – you start to run into the celebrity realtors who have teams working for them, some of which do a lot of developer work. So it’s not like the #1 realtor did $171 MM of closings all by himself.
Nevertheless, I believe that this data is directionally correct as it is consistent with data provided by the National Association of Realtors. In their 2009 member profile they show that on a national basis 62% of realtors had gross income of under $50,000 in 2008, with a median gross income of $36,700. After taxes and expenses those numbers drop to 64% earning under $35,000, with a median net income of $23,200. And those numbers are all for 2008. You can bet that 2009′s numbers are going to be a bit worse.
Tags: real estate agents, realtors
Posted in Agents, Industry Issues, News | 1 Comment »
February 26th, 2010 by Gary Lucido
There are a bunch of headlines around today that broadcast a 7.2% plunge in January home sales for the nation. I’m not even going to bother to try to figure out how they came up with this number – is it from December to January? Is it seasonally adjusted? – because it sends the wrong message. The same articles go on to point out that January sales are 11.5% higher than last January. So…how is that a 7.2% plunge? It’s the year over year numbers that matter.
And in the Chicago area sales are up a whopping 29.2% over last year. In order to allow year over year comparisons of January data I have graphed 13 month histories below.

As you can see we are close to the January 2008 level now, though we are still below 2007 levels. No doubt this is extremely positive, though we have to wait until the tax credit expires to know what’s really going on. In the meantime, I think it’s a safe bet that activity will remain strong through April. Business has really picked up in the last few months and mortgage rates are still near 50 year lows.
Tags: chicago home sales, home sales
Posted in Market Insights, News | No Comments »